Disinformation exists, foreign interference has been documented, and social media raises real political questions. But the most robust scientific studies show that their effects on opinions and polarization remain limited and contextual. Yet, with the Democracy Shield and AgoraEU projects, the European Union is embarking on an unprecedented budgetary and institutional ramp-up to respond to them. Between empirical evidence and political inflation, the question of proportionality deserves to be asked. The fight against disinformation and political polarization online is changing scale in Europe. With the Democracy Shield project and the future AgoraEU program, the European Commission is no longer content to simply provide a framework: it is planning an unprecedented budgetary and institutional ramp-up. The future multiannual financial framework (2028–2034) allocates €8.6 billion to AgoraEU, including €3.2 billion for MEDIA+—now extended to information—and €3.6 billion for SERV. The Democracy Shield, backed by a future European Center for Democratic Resilience (CERD), is to structure its doctrine and coordination. And disinformation is at the heart of the European executive’s target: in its 37-page communication on the Democracy Shield published last November, the Commission mentions the term « disinformation » no less than 68 times. The political message is clear: disinformation poses a systemic threat to European democracy. But what does the available empirical research say? Documented but limited effects Several landmark studies…
